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Immediate Need for Substantial Investment in Energy Storage

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With the transition towards Net-Zero, our reliance on weather dependant energy generation will leave a significant gap in the UK’s energy supply without continuing to use existing fossil fuel reserves.

Increasingly the UK’s electricity supply is reliant upon gas and diesel reciprocating engines to plug the gap when renewable generation is limited due to weather conditions. Short-term engine operating cycles of less than ten minutes result in very low electrical efficiencies and high levels of localised air pollution.

Market uncertainty has slowed the roll-out of battery energy storage assets which are required to replace gas and diesel engines in Fast Response Contracts. Battery energy storage technology (Li-ion) is currently limited to operating periods of less than 2 hours and are generally unable to access around 50% of the installed capacity due to technical constrains.

Reduced renewable energy generation in excess of 2 hours is reliant on gas and diesel reciprocating engines due to CCGT and Nuclear power generation availability at short notice. Further increases of up to 8GW in electrical demand by 2030 is expected due to the forecasted growth in electric powered vehicles. Electrical storage using pumped hydro in the UK has lacked investment and electro-mechanical technologies are still in their infancy, lacking industry and government focus.

Around 80% of the UK’s heat demand is currently supplied by natural gas which is unlikely to be compatible with the Government’s ‘Net-Zero 2050’ target. The expected growth in heat pump deployment for hot water and space heating will add significant electrical demand on the system particularly during periods of low solar electrical energy availability. Although the efficiency of heat pumps is well proven, retrofitting this technology within older properties will require further investment in improving insulation and heat storage.

Contributing ERP Members to this report: –

ABB

ARUP

Atkins

Worcester Bosch

Carbon Trust

Committee on Climate Change

Department for Business Energy and Industrial Strategy

Department for Transport

EDF Energy

Energy Saving Trust

Energy Systems Catapult

ERA

Wales and West Utilities

 Environment Agency

EPSRC

Hitachi

Innovate UK

National Grid

National Infrastructure Commission

Origami Energy

Turquoise International

Scottish Enterprise

Welsh Government

UKERC

University of Cambridge

Ofgem

Contributing Non-ERP Members to this report:

University of Birmingham

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Flexible Technology Options: Priorities for Innovation

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Background

To meet carbon emission targets, the UK’s energy system in the 2020s is likely to have high levels of intermittent generation from wind power, with increasing electrification of heat and transport. However, we need a better understanding of how intermittency can be managed to ensure an efficient transition to a low-carbon economy. A number of flexible options could provide operational flexibility on such a radically different system, including more electrical interconnection, demand side participation, energy storage and flexible thermal generation.

This project considers technical and engineering challenges to delivering flexible options, the business cases for technology deployment, and how further analysis of the energy system should incorporate a wider set of perspectives

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Conclusions and recommendations

Ensuring that £200bn is invested in the UK’s energy infrastructure over the next decade in the most effective way is an important task. Undertaking technology demonstrations and rigorous systems analysis that could help integrate generation from intermittent sources will ensure the energy system is designed efficiently, minimising the risk of stranded assets or taking inadvertent high carbon pathway at a later date. It would also show opportunities for technological development that would place the UK in a good position to capture market share elsewhere, as intermittency becomes a systems issue in other countries deploying renewables.

Technical and engineering challenges
Technological options could provide greater system flexibility, but need further development to show their potential scale and performance. Priorities for innovation are to:

  • demonstrate thermal storage to manage power requirements for heat pumps;
  • develop lower cost vehicle-to-grid capability in networks and vehicles;
  • ensure smart meter systems are deployed which will enable demand-side participation;
  • consider how to integrate interconnection of the GB electricity network with offshore wind development;
  • support research, development and demonstration of energy storage technologies;
  • improve the efficiency and reliability of thermal generation.

Business cases and market framework
The market and regulatory framework, as it evolves under the EMR process, should recognise the current uncertainty in how flexibility will be provided from the possible options. Key issues to address are how investment can be incentivised in:

  • Thermal plant, running at low load factors.
  • Vehicle-to-grid and interconnection, if they are to be deployed at significant scale.
  • Demand side and energy storage technologies, in which the value proposition is currently limited.

Systems analysis
The scale and nature of the flexible options that are required will depend on the degree of intermittency and electrification of the energy system. Any further scenario or modelling analysis on this topic should assess how sensitive results are to such high levels, in particular: the penetration of electric vehicles and heat pumps on the demand side, and the deployment of wind generation on the supply side.
Some technology-specific analysis would also help improve our understanding, including:

  • the role of rechargeable energy storage – how, at what scale, and where, electrical and thermal storage can deliver most benefit to the energy system under different scenarios;
  • the extent to which interconnection can provide flexibility and reliability in the UK electricity network, especially in periods of widespread low-wind events.

Flexible options have been, and are being, considered independently, but their combined integration over the next 10 – 15 years within a dynamic energy system is a critical area in which understanding needs to be improved. Analysis should go beyond single point optimisation of the power sector and consider how other technology choices in buildings and transport could contribute to overall system flexibility.

Recent developments, Aug 2012

DECC published ‘The Electricity System: assessment of future challenges’ on 9 August 2012. The paper assesses the possible impacts of the move to a low carbon economy on the electricity system as a whole. It considers the challenges to balancing supply and demand, and looks at whether there are more cost effective ways to operate the system in the future.

Three pieces of analytical work were also undertaken to support the development of the Electricity System paper, covering:

  • Understanding the Balancing Challenge (by Imperial College and NERA Consulting)
  • Demand Side Response in the domestic sector: a literature review of major trials (by Frontier Economics and Sustainability First)
  • Electricity System Analysis: future system benefits from selected DSR scenarios (by Redpoint Energy and Element Energy)
    Full details here

 

 

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Energy Storage in the UK

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 Background

A project by the Energy Research Partnership has been looking at the role for energy storage in the UK’s future energy system. The report, published in June 2011 presents a strategic view of the opportunities for electrical and thermal storage to provide a reliable energy supply, setting-out the nature and scale of the challenges that will be faced. We describe how energy storage could go to meeting those challenges and the innovation landscape for further technology development in the UK.

Executive Summary is available here, and the full report can be downloaded here.

Developments, including funding opportunities and analysis of the role of energy storage in the UK, which have followed the report’s publication, will be noted here.

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Conclusions

Our key conclusions are:

  • Energy storage can help manage the large-scale deployment of intermittent generation and the electrification of space heating.
    The role for energy storage is poorly described in many pathways to a low-carbon economy. It needs detailed analysis to identify the potential economic and environmental benefits.
  • New energy storage technologies are unlikely to be deployed on a large scale under current market and regulatory conditions. Both technology cost reductions, and a market framework which recognises the benefits of energy storage, are required.
  • Demonstration of energy storage technologies needs to be scaled-up and public sector support for innovation in these technologies should be better coordinated.
  • Energy storage is an enabling technology; its potential role will be defined by developments across the energy system. A better understanding of both the energy system and policy direction is required urgently to inform investment decisions.

Recommendations

Our recommendations are:

  1. Government should set out its long-term policy direction for energy in the UK to help define the potential role for storage, and the innovation required to meet that role.
  2. Funders of energy innovation must set out a strategy for the analysis and innovation of energy storage technologies, coordinating their support and integrating the analysis of potential benefits with technology innovation.
  3. Further analysis of the potential role of storage in the UK’s energy system should be funded. Whole system and subsystem modelling, incorporating the full range of energy storage options across time and energy scales, is needed.
  4. The Technology Strategy Board should consider bringing forward a programme for energy storage technologies, where there is an opportunity for UK businesses and a potential market need. Other bodies which can support large scale demonstration activities, such as Ofgem and DECC, should target energy storage as a priority.
  5. Electricity Market Reform and regulatory approaches must recognise the potential benefits of increased energy storage explicitly.
  6. The energy storage stakeholder community, covering all elements of research, development, demonstration and deployment, should establish a Strategic Roadmap for Energy Storage in the UK to introduce a coherent approach across the sector.

This report has been prepared by the ERP Analysis Team, led by Jonathan Radcliffe, with input from ERP members and their organisations. The Steering Group was chaired by John Miles (Arup), with Ron Loveland (Welsh Assembly Government), Alex Hart (Ceres Power), Charles Carey (SSE), David Anelli (E.ON), Gary Staunton (Carbon Trust), Gert Jan Kramer (Shell), John Loughhead (UKERC), Richard Ploszek (RAEng), Bob Sorrell (BP), Steven Stocks (Scottish Enterprise), and Tim Bradley (National Grid).

The views are not the official point of view of any of these organisations or individuals and do not constitute government policy.

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Analysis of Energy Systems Scenarios

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The increasing significance of the legally binding 80% CO2 emissions reduction has led most major organisations in the public and private sectors to take a view on how the energy system will evolve to 2050. Scenarios have been developed using a range of techniques; some forecasting likely developments given the current technological, geopolitical, commercial and social environment. Others are ‘backcasting’ from an idealised low carbon system to devise trajectories that achieve an optimal outcome. Some are built from quantitative modelling techniques using optimisation or macroeconomic approaches to building feasible scenarios; others have a descriptive or consultative approach to building a qualitative perspective on the future possibilities.

ERP’s report Energy Innovation Milestones to 2050 built on an analysis of public and private sector scenarios for the UK’s energy system, bringing out some of the common themes and areas of uncertainty. The individual scenarios are described below, followed by an overview of the key messages form the meta-analysis.

Scenarios

ERP’s analyses of the scenarios that were studied for the ‘Milestones’ report are available from the links below. Each document summarises the objectives, assumptions, outputs and key messages of the scenario, with links to the full report or documentation where available.

New or updated scenarios will be added as they become available. We welcome any comments or corrections.

Meta-analysis

The meta-analysis is described in Chapter 2 of the Milestones report (available separately here link). It identifies areas of consensus and diversity across scenarios and models, also highlighting some of the critical decision or divergence points in the timeline to 2050.
The main conclusions are summarised below, against:

  1. demand reduction and efficiency,
  2. power generation, flexibility and control,
  3. heat supply and
  4. transport.

As new scenarios become available, the conclusions will be reviewed.

1. Energy demand reduction and energy efficiency
  • Energy conservation Agreement this was a key enabler in meeting the 80% target. Final energy demand from end users must stabilise, and preferably reduce, with the majority of scenarios suggesting a reduction of between 30% and 50% on current levels.
  • Behavioural change Many scenarios made strong assumptions about the capacity to bring about the necessary demand reductions. There was also a general presumption that demand would be reduced without a corresponding reduction in energy service delivered. The role of energy efficiency across the board was essential, the range of efficiency assumptions varied with each scenario but the reliance on incremental improvements to deliver the same standard of energy service for less was consistent.
  • Demand reduction Divergence and uncertainty around whether levels of demand reduction are actually achievable. Although all scenarios recognised that it was necessary, some models, particularly those with a forecasting approach, concluded that this level of demand reduction was not a feasible outcome, either because there are not suitable demand side technologies to make the reduction, or, because the behavioural element of technology use would lower the performance efficiency of end-use technologies.

2. Power generation and power system control

  • Decarbonisation of power Consensus on the need for rapid decarbonisation of power generation
  • Electricity demand Divergence on the extent of increase in demand with the range varying from 10% to well above 100%.
  • Generation Agreement on the main components of the power system in 2050, with centralised provision from nuclear, wind, fossil (mostly coal) with CCS taking a lead role, but there were variations in proportion of each major technology.
  • Other technologies No consensus on the role for other low carbon generation technologies such as tidal, wave, energy from waste, bioenergy, solar photo-voltaic and concentrated solar power. Most studies picked out a small role for a wide range of other technologies but there were no obvious patterns in these conclusions.
  • Intermittency Scenarios did not agree on how system control would evolve to resolve intermittency issues. A range of solutions were deployed by the models, from flexible conventional generation, to flexible demand, interconnection to mainland Europe and large scale storage solutions.
    • Forecasting studies cited gas as primary source of system flexibility, particularly in the short to medium term (out to 2030), although this was often coupled with failing to achieve the full 80% CO2 reductions by 2050.
    • Back casting studies showed more of a role for interconnection and storage (e.g. pumped storage). The involvement of the demand side in treating flexibility was dependent on the electrification of heat and transport and assumptions around behaviour change and end-use technology capabilities (e.g. to enable vehicle to grid interaction).
3. Road transport
  • Effciency Efficiency gains in conventional vehicles and hybrids drove the bulk of emissions reductions in road transport up to 2020/2025. Post-2025 there was a diversity of fuels playing a role in both passenger and freight transport. Nevertheless, the table also shows there was a significant role for electric drive-train vehicles with some scenarios seeing electric vehicles dominating after 2025.
  • Electrification General shift toward the large-scale electrification of transport (particularly domestic transport) after 2025. A limitation of many of the scenarios studied is that the modelling approaches used are not well adapted for representation or costing of infrastructure developments. So comparison of alternative transport options is limited to end-use technology.
  • Technology Assumptions around the efficiency improvements (or lack of them) for electric, biofuel and fuel cell vehicles drove scenarios down various alternative paths.
  • Bioenergy This was still quite unclear across the energy system with some scenarios seeing a strong role for biofuels in the post 2025 system. But again, highly dependent on assumptions around availability of biofuels and conflicting demands between modes of transport, from other energy services and from non-energy sectors.
  • Infrastructure Assumptions around the feasibility and cost of infrastructure evolution also drove the interplay between biofuel, hydrogen and electric transport futures.

4. Heat supply

  • Electrification Across scenarios there ws some diversity in the energy sources used for provision of heat but with a slight shift towards electrification away from gas-based heating. There was a general theme of heat supply being provided by multiple technologies (electric heat pumps, gas domestic-scale CHP, biomethane, district heating), so moving away from a single dominant technology (gas central heating).
  • Demand The role of responsive demand (particularly use of low-grade heat as a storage device through heat pumps and domestic heat storage) in providing power system balancing services was a recurring feature of the scenarios. However, there was variation in assumptions regarding responsiveness of end users (caused by both technical and/or behavioural limitations).
  • Technologies There was considerable uncertainty around deployment and acceptability of new (or alternative) heating technologies. Many of the solutions suggested would require a change in the way that domestic dwellings receive heat services, others require a completely different approach to installation that may not be compatible with retrofit into existing homes and many are susceptible to less than optimal running efficiencies through user behaviour.

 

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Innovation Milestones to 2050

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Background

The UK Government has set challenging targets for the reduction of carbon emissions: 34% by 2020 and 80% by 2050. A better understanding of technology RD&D pathways, critical decision points and risks, will inform public and private sector decision makers on innovation policy and funding issues to help meet these targets. The Energy Research Partnership bropught together stakeholders from across the energy sector to develop such a vision.

“Developing a consensus on the technology that a decarbonised society might need in 2050 is essential. The Energy Research Partnership will be carrying out work to focus on key research, development and demonstration milestones.” HMG’s Low Carbon Transition Plan, July 2009

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Aim

The aim of the ERP “Innovation Milestones to 2050” project was to develop a shared understanding of what current analysis tells us about the technology development milestones and critical decision points for the likely key components of the energy system in 2050. Using this, the ERP set out a vision, briadly shared by Government and industry to give a better common understanding of technology pathways, timeframes and risks, and their contribution to the targets.
For ERP, this provides a context for our future work on technology assessments of RD&D challenges, gaps and opportunities. Combined with an oversight of the innovation landscape, this can be used to identify and address gaps in provision and priorities for support.

Outputs

The first phase of the project was a review and meta-analysis of a wide range of public and private energy system scenarios for 2050. The high-level / meta-analysis link above describes the process, gives the conclusions and provides high-level analysis of major UK energy system scenarios.

The report was published in March 2010.

 

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Heat

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ERP – ETI – RAEng workshop on Heat: 22 January 2009

The Energy Research Partnership, Energy Technologies Institute and Royal Academy of Engineering organised a workshop to examine the role of heat in the UK’s energy system.

Heat accounts for about half of the UK’s current CO2 emissions and was the subject of a consultation by Government. The workshop was designed to raise the level of thinking on heat as an issue, help guide ETI’s future work on heat, and inform participants’ responses to the consultation.

Context setting presentations covered whole systems, policy, and technology angles; followed by an interactive panel discussion with senior figures from private and public sectors.

Click here for the final report of the workshop.

The agenda and presentations are available below.

Whole systems

Policy

Technology

Based on the workshop, ERP submitted a response to DECC’s Heat and Energy Saving Strategy Consultation on 8 May 2009.

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Energy Technologies Matrix

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Technology matrix

Background

The Energy Research Partnership’s report on ‘UK Energy Innovation’ identified 12 key technology sectors which were expected to transform the UK’s energy landscape, making dramatic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions whilst maintaining secure access to competitive sources of energy. That report set out the support available in each sector along the full innovation chain.
In this project, the status and development needs of 150 specific technologies were studied, to aid public and private sector decision makers in the targeting of energy RDD&D support.

Approach

The assessment followed a rigorous process, with detailed input from experts in each field, and a workshop to peer-review the results. A range of barriers and enablers to bringing each technology to commercial deployment were considered, to produce an intricate and information-rich matrix. This technologies matrix shows the complexity of the energy innovation landscape and will be kept under review to provide an up-to-date resource for business, funders and policy makers.

Output

The report was published in March 2009:

Project report and summary of the Technologies Matrix
Energy Technologies Matrix

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UK Energy Innovation

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Innovation Landscape

Innovation Funnel

In 2007, the Energy Research Partnership conducted a review of the innovation chain for 12 key energy technology areas. It is technologies in these areas that are expected to transform the UK’s energy landscape, making dramatic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions whilst maintaining secure access to competitive sources of energy.

The supporting agencies are identified for each area giving a clear picture of the sources of public funding that help move technologies from R&D through demonstration to final deployment. Gaps and barriers in the innovation chain are also highlighted and specific recommendations made to overcome these.The ERP is now looking in detail at the development needs in 100+ more specific technologies and assessing each against a set of criteria to help prioritise RDD&D investment.

In bringing this all together the ERP hope to highlight its recommendations to ensure that the UK will have the technologies available to meet the daunting challenge set by climate change.

These are best summarised as:

  • Development of a strategic vision for each technology area
  • Better co-ordination, with some consolidation, of support along the innovation chain
  • R&D to be strengthened and more strongly focussed on market need
  • Much stronger joint public/private support for demonstration and early deployment

Next steps

This project was followed up with an in depth analysis of the 12 key technology families and their progress along with innovation pathway. Further details of the project can be found on the Energy Technologies Matrix project page.

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