With the transition towards Net-Zero, our reliance on weather dependant energy generation will leave a significant gap in the UK’s energy supply without continuing to use existing fossil fuel reserves.
Increasingly the UK’s electricity supply is reliant upon gas and diesel reciprocating engines to plug the gap when renewable generation is limited due to weather conditions. Short-term engine operating cycles of less than ten minutes result in very low electrical efficiencies and high levels of localised air pollution.
Market uncertainty has slowed the roll-out of battery energy storage assets which are required to replace gas and diesel engines in Fast Response Contracts. Battery energy storage technology (Li-ion) is currently limited to operating periods of less than 2 hours and are generally unable to access around 50% of the installed capacity due to technical constrains.
Reduced renewable energy generation in excess of 2 hours is reliant on gas and diesel reciprocating engines due to CCGT and Nuclear power generation availability at short notice. Further increases of up to 8GW in electrical demand by 2030 is expected due to the forecasted growth in electric powered vehicles. Electrical storage using pumped hydro in the UK has lacked investment and electro-mechanical technologies are still in their infancy, lacking industry and government focus.
Around 80% of the UK’s heat demand is currently supplied by natural gas which is unlikely to be compatible with the Government’s ‘Net-Zero 2050’ target. The expected growth in heat pump deployment for hot water and space heating will add significant electrical demand on the system particularly during periods of low solar electrical energy availability. Although the efficiency of heat pumps is well proven, retrofitting this technology within older properties will require further investment in improving insulation and heat storage.
Contributing ERP Members to this report: –
| ABB
ARUP
Atkins
Worcester Bosch
Carbon Trust
Committee on Climate Change
Department for Business Energy and Industrial Strategy
Department for Transport
EDF Energy
Energy Saving Trust
Energy Systems Catapult
ERA
Wales and West Utilities |
Environment Agency
EPSRC
Hitachi
Innovate UK
National Grid
National Infrastructure Commission
Origami Energy
Turquoise International
Scottish Enterprise
Welsh Government
UKERC
University of Cambridge
Ofgem |
Contributing Non-ERP Members to this report:
University of Birmingham
Hydrogen is already entering the energy system and appears to be a convincing pathway to decarbonise heat and transport. Its widespread use requires deliberate intervention, which includes a strategic, long-term plan to make hydrogen zero-carbon and to address challenges, including its impact on energy security.
The biggest challenges are where large volumes of hydrogen will come from and how to decarbonise it. The report highlights concerns around the associated costs and deliverability of the necessary steam methane reforming plant and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) infrastructure needed to handle the large volumes of CO2.
Natural gas will be used to produce a majority of the hydrogen, as it is cheaper than from electricity, but residual emissions from CCS and hydrocarbon extraction are significant and will need to be addressed. Surplus electricity from wind will produce only a small fraction of the hydrogen needed for heat: meeting this demand with electricity alone would require about 70 GW of additional nuclear capacity – seven times current capacity.
Replacing natural gas with hydrogen for heating will increase gas consumption and produce more CO2. Some of the increase could be offset by measures to reduce energy demand for heat. Blending into the gas supply provides little carbon reduction, even at high blends, and would be expensive, so switching has to be done by area and straight to 100% hydrogen.
Imports of natural gas mean most of the upstream emissions from extraction are likely to be outside the UK. This may be an issue for meeting global climate targets set out in the Paris Agreement.
Zero-carbon hydrogen could be imported from sunny regions, such as North Africa, using very-high temperature solar thermal. But these are unlikely to be available to meet early bulk demand.
Hydrogen is already playing a valuable, diffuse role in the energy system and helping to manage the electricity grid, fuel vehicle fleets and industry. These niche applications can develop without hydrogen from natural gas, but will benefit from removing regulatory and market barriers to help them become viable.
Recommendations
- Enable early, stand-alone, hydrogen technologies.
- Remove regulatory barriers to enable diffuse use of hydrogen.
- Plan for large-scale use of hydrogen to address carbon emissions and energy security implications. The following are needed if hydrogen is used widely in heat and transport:
- Long-term strategic plan for zero-carbon hydrogen.
- CCS built before 2030, to enable large-scale use of hydrogen.
- Assess energy security implications of import dependency.
- Insulate buildings to a high standard, to offset increases in gas consumption.
- Early engagement with publics will be essential.
- Evaluate need and locations of large-scale hydrogen storage.
- Clear signal to enable investment by developers and equipment providers.
- Robust understanding of safety, with meaningful regulation.
- Whole system approach to hydrogen, to evaluate potential in the energy system.
- Whole system, sustainability criteria should be used to evaluate the benefits
- Realise cross-sector benefits to reduce costs and improve efficiencies.
- Support UK industry and expertise to capitalise on emerging global markets.
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Follow-up activities
This report leads into ERP’s project on the transition to low-carbon heat.
Steering Group
- Prof Neville Jackson – Ricardo (Chair)
- Den Gamer – ETI
- Peter Bance – Origami Investments
The project consulted widely with industry and academia and draws on a large number of published reports and papers.
Further information
Please contact Richard Heap from the ERP Analysis Team.
Meeting the 2050 targets means the UK energy system will need to transition to low-carbon heat. Changes will be needed to how we heat our homes, buildings and industry. Supplying natural gas or oil directly into homes will need to be replaced by a decarbonised gas or by electric heating or heat network.
But it is not a simple choice: each option has challenges that could limit their deployment. A combination of options is likely to be required; no one option may not dominate, as natural gas currently does. Demand reduction will be an essential part of a cost-effective transition.
The scale of the challenge should not be underestimated. The social aspects are as challenging as the technical. The capital investment means the cost of heating will rise during the transition.
Timing is crucial. Preparations need to begin now, to inform the long investment cycles over the next 30 years.
Several low-carbon heating options need to be pursued in parallel now. Early in 2020s, critical actions and decisions will need to be taken, by Government, to avoid closing-off options, undermining their potential, or increasing their costs.
- Determining the extent to which hydrogen could be used to decarbonise the gas system, is critical. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) will be essential.
- Government support for trials of key technologies is needed now.
- No and low-regrets options should be supported now.
- High efficiency standards for new-buildings need to be set and enforced.
- A robust retrofit energy efficiency programme for existing buildings.
Addressing the social aspects of the transition needs to be a priority and requires early engagement with the public, alongside the development and coordination of financial policies, incentives, regulations and business models.
- Engagement with the public will be crucial and needs to start now.
- A new narrative for heating and hot water, to recognise that costs will increase.
- Energy efficiency should be pursued to reduce the costs.
- Decide how to address the distributional impacts.
- Prioritise new financing mechanisms and market structures.
A long-term strategy to manage the transition, which engages with the public and coordinates the diverse range of parties, with a clear decision-making framework.
- Integrate decisions on heat with transport, industry and power generation.
- A heat delivery body to facilitate national, local and commercial decision making.
- Early engagement with the public will be crucial – as will a clear narrative
Project Events
The project’s report was launched at an event in October 2017. For more information, please contact Richard Heap.
A workshop on 18 July 2017 tested the analysis on the deployment potential and challenges of the various low-carbon heating options. Details of the workshop can be found here.
January 2017 ERP convened an industry workshop to explore the challenges of deploying heat pumps (see project outputs for a note of the meeting).
The low-carbon heat project was launched in October 2016 (more information is available on the event page).
Steering Group
- Carl Arntzen, Bosch Thermotechology (Steering Group Chair)
- Chris Jofeh, ARUP
- Steven Cowan, Atkins
- Olivia Absalom & Andy Davey, BEIS (observer)
- Joe Cosier & Simon Messenger, Energy Saving Trust
- Jeff Douglas, Energy Systems Catapult
- Sarah Deasley, Frontier Economics
- Mark Thompson, Innovate UK
- Janet Mather, National Grid, Gas SO
- Rufus Ford, SSE (seconded to BEIS)
- Kathleen Robertson, Scottish Government
- Keith MacLean, Independent / UKERC
- Ron Loveland, Welsh Government
- Amber Sharick, UKERC
Additional Sponsors
We would like to thank the following organisations for providing additional funding that allowed the project to run to completion. They also provided additional technical input and advice.
Bosch
Energy Saving Trust
Innovate UK
Cadent
Energy & Utilities Alliance EUA
BEIS
SGN
Institution of Gas Engineers & Managers IGEM
Background
How energy is produced and used is expected to be transformed with the transition to a low-carbon energy system. This will have major impacts on how it is transferred from point of production to user, to ensure an economically efficient, secure and reliable supply of energy services. With supply and demand becoming increasingly variable, and potentially a shift towards greater electrification particularly at the household level, smarter systems will be need requiring new approaches and technologies to manage the networks. This is likely to affect how the transmission and distribution networks, particularly for electricity, are managed and monitored and greater demand-side controls along with smart meters.
Considerable effort has been put into understanding and coordinating the development of smart grids in the UK. However, as the technologies and understanding develops and evolves and with so many stakeholders involved, each with different interests, the definition of a smart grid can diverge. This project will review the current activity with the aim of understanding the various perspectives on smart systems, including the interaction between the gas and electricity systems and demand-side technologies. It will include understanding the perspectives of the various operators, with the aim of proposing a common language and identifying gaps in the research & development efforts.
Conclusions & Recommendations
ERP plans to publish a report from this work in early 2017.
Follow-up activities
TBC.
Steering Group
Project Chair
- Phil Sheppard, National Grid
Steering Group Members
- Duncan McCombie, Energy Savings Trust
- Damitha Adikaari, DECC
- Dave Openshaw, UK Power Networks
- Phil Proctor, Energy Technology Institute
- Nick Smailes, Technology Strategy Board
- Ron Loveland, Energy adviser to Welsh Government
- Ewen Cameron, Scottish Enterprise
- Gareth Evans, Ofgem
- Peter Jones, ABB
Further Information
Please contact Richard Heap from the ERP Analysis Team.
It is clear that the public have a significant role in determining how the transformation of the energy system progresses. While largely supportive of a sustainable energy system the public’s trust in energy companies and government to deliver it is currently low. Published in May 2014, ERP’s ‘Engaging the Public in the Transformation of the Energy System’ report looks at how to restore this trust, which is vital if the public is to be expected to engage in the transformation, both in terms of informing decision making and undertaking changes at an individual level.
Background
For the UK to meet its mid- and long-term policy targets of a secure, low-carbon and affordable energy system a considerable transformation will be needed, requiring new technologies to be deployed along with changes to the way energy is used, distributed and generated. Spanning several decades there are still considerable uncertainties about how this will develop. It is clear that the public will interact with these changes at several levels: whether in deployment of new infrastructure or technologies in the home, or changes in behaviour. Involving the public is therefore essential, but understanding how and why is vital to ensure the transformation to a sustainable energy system is acceptable and successful.
Conclusions & Recommendations
The report explores the strategic importance of engaging with the public and the need for those involved in commissioning it, including in government and the private sector, to use it to improve decision making in the delivery of the energy transition. The value of understanding the publics’ point of view through good, early engagement is emphasised and a structure for engagement is set out with some key principles to improve the outcomes.
The work recommends developing a Strategic Narrative that can put into context the various programmes necessary for delivering the energy transition. Developed through early engagement with the public and stakeholders involved in the transition, this Strategic Narrative would help build trust and understanding of the long-term objectives and in those parties involved in delivering them and would also increase the amount and quality of engagement.
Follow-up activities
Narratives are recognised as being effective communication tools particularly for complex issues. For an issue that is as broad, complex and multi-faceted as the transformation of the energy system a high-level narrative is needed to provide a come shared purpose and demonstrate coherence to the various activities and policies needed to achieve it. Engaging the public is vital to help identify the key components of the Strategic Narrative.
ERP held a workshop in July 2014 to develop the process for developing a Strategic Narrative, with the help of Dialogue by Design and Involve. We are looking at holding a further workshop to explore the issue further in 2015.
Steering Group
The report was prepared by the ERP Analysis Team, led by Richard Heap.
ERP initiated this project recognising the importance of engaging with the public in the transition to a sustainable energy system. The work has been informed by a series of interviews and a workshop that brought together representatives from academia, industry, NGOs and the public sector. This workshop helped identify areas that are important for effective public engagement. Details can be found on the link above.
- Steering Group Chair: Ron Loveland (Welsh Government)
- John Loughhead (UKERC)
- Duncan McLaren (Friends of the Earth)
- Peter Snowdon (Shell International)
- Meryl Hicks (BP)(to Feb 2014)
- Janine Freeman (National Grid) (from Jan 2014)
- Adam Cooper (formerly DECC) (until Sept 2013)
- Ewan Bennie (DECC) (from Jan 2014)
Further Information
Please contact Richard Heap from the ERP Analysis Team.
Background
The world’s energy systems are fundamentally inefficient – as little as 11% of primary energy may end up in useful product, such as materials, heat, light and motion. Industry has a key role, not only to improve its own use of energy, but also deliver more efficient products and materials. Industry is responsible for 18% of final energy demand in the UK and about 32% of its total greenhouse gas emissions. However, projections indicate that cutting carbon emissions from industry will be harder than in most other sectors leaving it as one of the biggest emitters in 2050.ERP undertook a study to understand the potential to improve the use of energy across industry.
Tackling industrial energy use has tended to focus on de-carbonising energy supplies and CCS, to reduce carbon emissions. This study focuses intentionally on energy efficiency, not carbon efficiency. Energy efficiency delivers both cost savings to industry and a reduction in carbon emissions. Many of the technologies are already available and could be implemented over the next 10-15 years, cost effectively.
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Conclusions and Key Messages
Companies may appear to be economically rational, and hence that value adding actions to improve energy efficiency would already have been adopted; our study reveals that this is often not the case. Without energy efficiency measures industry will become increasingly dependent on a low carbon electricity infrastructure and on alternative carbon reduction measures such as biomass and CCS, which present uncertain costs and in the latter case reduce the efficient use of energy.
The key messages and recommendations emerging from the study are:
Improving energy efficiency is not only good for industry but also addressing climate change targets. Despite delivering emission reductions at low cost, energy efficiency projects are less tractable than other low-carbon options. Greater emphasis is needed on energy efficiency not only in industry but how it interacts with the wider energy system and economy. To deliver this requires:
- Levelling the playing field between low carbon energy supply and energy use by introducing a package of policy measures that incentivise energy efficiency projects. These should take account of the differing needs of industry sectors factoring in size and energy intensity.
- The UK working with manufacturing industries to reduce the risks of manufacturing off-shoring and increasing global emissions through carbon leakage.
- Encouraging companies to share and adopt best practice, through measures such as:
- Setting Board level targets
- Appointing a senior manager with accountability for energy efficiency
- Changing the hurdle rate of return for energy efficiency projects to fully account for the benefits from energy efficiency projects.
- Monitoring energy use to ensure benefits of energy efficiency projects are recognised.
- Further research is required to understand how energy moves through the entire system and where losses occur, particularly heat and energy embodied in materials.
The key messages from the study was published in November 2011, which emphasised the need for a greater focus on energy efficiency to deliver low cost carbon reductions.
Steering Group
This report has been prepared by Richard Heap in the ERP Analysis Team, with input from ERP members and their organisations.
Steering Group chair
Steering Group Members
- Graeme Sweeney – Shell
- Tony Iles – Atkins
- Ben Curnier – Carbon Trust
- Bob Sorrell – BP
- Sam Balch – DECC
The views are not the official point of view of any of these organisations or individuals and do not constitute government policy.
Further Information
Any queries please contact Richard Heap, ERP Analysis Team.
As part of ERP’s public engagement project a workshop was convened on 10th May 2013 to help inform the work. The workshop brought together a cross section of academics and public and private sector colleagues with a range of experiences in public engagement.
The purpose of the workshop was to:
- Consider the different types, levels and meanings of Public Engagement & how best to choose which engagement process(es) to use, with whom and when;
- Understand concerns and barriers around the (wider) use of Public Engagement regarding energy-related policies, projects or technologies and how these may be mitigated;
- Identify areas for further research or exploration around energy related policies, processes or technologies, where Public Engagement can add value and better informed choices;
- Actions, Evaluation & Way Forward
It was chaired by Ron Loveland and facilitated by Sciencewise, with Lord Jenkin of Roding providing the closing remarks. Details of the meeting, presentations and outcomes can be found below.
- Workshop presentations:
- Public Engagement Landscape & Typology, Graham Smith, Westminster University
- Transforming the UK Energy System: Public Values Attitudes & Acceptability, Cardiff University
- The NW Coast Grids Connection Project, Robert Powell, National Grid
- The Circular Economy, Joe Iles. The Ellen MacArthur Foundation
- The Research Councils, Gavin Salisbury, EPSRC
- Milton Keynes Council, Jeremy Draper, Milton Keynes
- Public Engagement, An EU Perspective, Richard Adams, EESC
- Smart Meters, Adrian Evans, Energy UK
- Transport, Emissions & Electric Vehicles, John Screeton, DfT
Following the recommendation in ERP’s Nuclear Fission Report in 2010, a project was set up to consider what such a roadmap might look like. Funded by the EPSRC, ETI and the NDA with support from the National Nuclear Laboratory and the ERP, the Nuclear Technology RD&D Roadmap report provides a strategic outline of the issues that need to be addressed in developing a roadmap for nuclear R&D in the UK.
Background
Considerable effort is being put into opening the way for new nuclear power stations in the UK to replace existing capacity by 2025. However, many energy scenarios for a secure, low carbon energy system indicate that nuclear power may have to play a much greater role by 2050. Delivering such an expanded fleet is not a matter of doing more of the same, but requires a long-term strategic approach focused on ensuring a secure supply of fuel and managing the additional waste arisings as well as maximising opportunities for the UK supply chain.
One of the main recommendations of ERP’s report on Nuclear Fission in September 2010 was the need to develop a long-term strategy for nuclear energy in the UK and to develop a roadmap for the R&D to deliver it. In early 2011 a consortium of the EPSRC, Energy Technologies Institute, Nuclear Decommissioning Authority, National Nuclear Laboratory (NNL) and ERP came together to consider what such a roadmap might look like.
The project consulted widely with industry, academia, regulators and other key stakeholders. It explored many of the issues that an R&D roadmap should include and we see it as providing a valuable framework for subsequent work.
Conclusions and Recommendations
Published in February 2012 the UK Nuclear Fission Technology Roadmap: Preliminary Report highlights the range of technology pathways that could be deployed, each with significantly differing R&D requirements and opportunities for the development of UK industry and supply chain. Keeping these options open requires investing in R&D many years in advance. Any delays risk closing off options unnecessarily, which might prove costly to rectify in the future.
Drawing on two possible scenarios of how nuclear generation might develop in the UK the report highlights a number of significant issues that need to be addressed in the next five years, not only for the current replacement programme but for any expansion of nuclear capacity. The report recommends:
- Further detailed assessments are needed to understand the issues identified in the report and to realise the potential opportunities for UK industry.
- The UK Government needs to develop a clearly defined long-term nuclear energy and industrial strategy and an R&D Roadmap for the nuclear sector.
- An R&D co-ordinating body should be formed that includes Government, industry, NNL, NDA, regulators, academia and research funders, to own, develop and advise Government on a long-term nuclear R&D strategy and roadmap, in order to underpin realisation of the commercial opportunities and to direct the underpinning programme of R&D, in part through international collaboration.
The NNL was commissioned by the project consortium to undertake and manage the work. The project was overseen by a Steering Group chaired by Dame Sue Ion, ERP member. A full list of Steering Group members and those that were consulted during the project can be found here.
Follow Up Activities
The report helped inform the Government’s Chief Scientific Advisor review of the civil nuclear R&D landscape in the UK, which was published in March 2013. ERP were represented on the Review’s Advisory Board.
Further Information
Please contact Richard Heap in the ERP Analysis Team for further information on this project.
Nuclear Fission Report
In September 2010 ERP published a report on nuclear fission that took a long-term view of nuclear as an energy source, looking at future fuel cycles, capacity and responsiveness as well as recognising security and proliferation issues.
The subsequent report UK Nuclear Fission Technology Roadmap: Preliminary Report, published in February 2012, identified the issues that a nuclear R&D roadmap should consider.
Background
At the time the proposals for nuclear generation in the UK were for a new build programme of up to 16 GW of capacity by 2025, to replace the current capacity. Over the next decade and a half, all but one of the current reactors will be closed down and decommissioned. Beyond that the UK had not set out any plans for how nuclear power will develop.
Conclusions and Recommendations
The ERP report concluded that a long-term strategy was needed for the development of nuclear power in the UK, combined with a detailed R&D roadmap. The report recommended that this should happen as a matter of urgency to inform decisions about R&D and to avoid the risk of the UK losing its world renowned expertise in reprocessing and recycling technologies. It identified key issues that needed to be considered in developing the roadmap. These included:
- The long term role of nuclear generation in the UK and the potential need to develop new fuel-cycle and reprocessing technologies.
- Capitalising on the growing international deployment of nuclear fission: Selling fuel-cycle technologies and services into the international market, developing an industrial base and contributing to the development of key technologies.
- Defining the UK’s role in non-proliferation debates which will require supporting RD&D to inform positions and support international developments.
The report noted there is a strong business case for a healthy and vibrant research base in the UK that would support the national nuclear programme and provide the necessary skills, but would also provide benefit from exploiting the growing global market.
Follow up activities
Following publication of the ERP report a project was set up in early 2011 to consider what such a roadmap might look like. Funded by the EPSRC, Energy Technologies Institute and the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority with support from the National Nuclear Laboratory and the ERP, the report provides a strategic outline of the issues that need to be addressed in developing a roadmap for nuclear research and development in the UK. The project engaged widely with industry, academia and regulators.
The report was published in February 2012.
ERP’s report and some of its Members provided evidence for the House of Lords Inquiry into Nuclear Research and Development Capabilities. Published in November 2011 the report called for a nuclear R&D roadmap.
Since then the Government asked the Government’s Chief Scientific Advisor to lead a review of the current nuclear R&D landscape in the UK. Launched in April 2012 it will report later in the year. ERP are represented on the Review’s Advisory Board.
Steering Group
ERP’s 2010 report was prepared by Richard Heap in the ERP Analysis Team with input from ERP Members and their organisations.
Project chair
- Sue Ion – Royal Academy of Engineering
Steering Group Members
- Doosan Power Systems
- E.ON
- SSE
- DECC
- EPSRC
The views are not the official point of view of any of these organisations or individuals and do not constitute government policy.
Further Information
Further information from Richard Heap in the ERP Analysis Team.
Other Relevant Links
The increasing significance of the legally binding 80% CO2 emissions reduction has led most major organisations in the public and private sectors to take a view on how the energy system will evolve to 2050. Scenarios have been developed using a range of techniques; some forecasting likely developments given the current technological, geopolitical, commercial and social environment. Others are ‘backcasting’ from an idealised low carbon system to devise trajectories that achieve an optimal outcome. Some are built from quantitative modelling techniques using optimisation or macroeconomic approaches to building feasible scenarios; others have a descriptive or consultative approach to building a qualitative perspective on the future possibilities.
ERP’s report Energy Innovation Milestones to 2050 built on an analysis of public and private sector scenarios for the UK’s energy system, bringing out some of the common themes and areas of uncertainty. The individual scenarios are described below, followed by an overview of the key messages form the meta-analysis.
Scenarios
ERP’s analyses of the scenarios that were studied for the ‘Milestones’ report are available from the links below. Each document summarises the objectives, assumptions, outputs and key messages of the scenario, with links to the full report or documentation where available.
New or updated scenarios will be added as they become available. We welcome any comments or corrections.
Meta-analysis
The meta-analysis is described in Chapter 2 of the Milestones report (available separately here link). It identifies areas of consensus and diversity across scenarios and models, also highlighting some of the critical decision or divergence points in the timeline to 2050.
The main conclusions are summarised below, against:
- demand reduction and efficiency,
- power generation, flexibility and control,
- heat supply and
- transport.
As new scenarios become available, the conclusions will be reviewed.
1. Energy demand reduction and energy efficiency
- Energy conservation Agreement this was a key enabler in meeting the 80% target. Final energy demand from end users must stabilise, and preferably reduce, with the majority of scenarios suggesting a reduction of between 30% and 50% on current levels.
- Behavioural change Many scenarios made strong assumptions about the capacity to bring about the necessary demand reductions. There was also a general presumption that demand would be reduced without a corresponding reduction in energy service delivered. The role of energy efficiency across the board was essential, the range of efficiency assumptions varied with each scenario but the reliance on incremental improvements to deliver the same standard of energy service for less was consistent.
- Demand reduction Divergence and uncertainty around whether levels of demand reduction are actually achievable. Although all scenarios recognised that it was necessary, some models, particularly those with a forecasting approach, concluded that this level of demand reduction was not a feasible outcome, either because there are not suitable demand side technologies to make the reduction, or, because the behavioural element of technology use would lower the performance efficiency of end-use technologies.
2. Power generation and power system control
- Decarbonisation of power Consensus on the need for rapid decarbonisation of power generation
- Electricity demand Divergence on the extent of increase in demand with the range varying from 10% to well above 100%.
- Generation Agreement on the main components of the power system in 2050, with centralised provision from nuclear, wind, fossil (mostly coal) with CCS taking a lead role, but there were variations in proportion of each major technology.
- Other technologies No consensus on the role for other low carbon generation technologies such as tidal, wave, energy from waste, bioenergy, solar photo-voltaic and concentrated solar power. Most studies picked out a small role for a wide range of other technologies but there were no obvious patterns in these conclusions.
- Intermittency Scenarios did not agree on how system control would evolve to resolve intermittency issues. A range of solutions were deployed by the models, from flexible conventional generation, to flexible demand, interconnection to mainland Europe and large scale storage solutions.
- Forecasting studies cited gas as primary source of system flexibility, particularly in the short to medium term (out to 2030), although this was often coupled with failing to achieve the full 80% CO2 reductions by 2050.
- Back casting studies showed more of a role for interconnection and storage (e.g. pumped storage). The involvement of the demand side in treating flexibility was dependent on the electrification of heat and transport and assumptions around behaviour change and end-use technology capabilities (e.g. to enable vehicle to grid interaction).
3. Road transport
- Effciency Efficiency gains in conventional vehicles and hybrids drove the bulk of emissions reductions in road transport up to 2020/2025. Post-2025 there was a diversity of fuels playing a role in both passenger and freight transport. Nevertheless, the table also shows there was a significant role for electric drive-train vehicles with some scenarios seeing electric vehicles dominating after 2025.
- Electrification General shift toward the large-scale electrification of transport (particularly domestic transport) after 2025. A limitation of many of the scenarios studied is that the modelling approaches used are not well adapted for representation or costing of infrastructure developments. So comparison of alternative transport options is limited to end-use technology.
- Technology Assumptions around the efficiency improvements (or lack of them) for electric, biofuel and fuel cell vehicles drove scenarios down various alternative paths.
- Bioenergy This was still quite unclear across the energy system with some scenarios seeing a strong role for biofuels in the post 2025 system. But again, highly dependent on assumptions around availability of biofuels and conflicting demands between modes of transport, from other energy services and from non-energy sectors.
- Infrastructure Assumptions around the feasibility and cost of infrastructure evolution also drove the interplay between biofuel, hydrogen and electric transport futures.
4. Heat supply
- Electrification Across scenarios there ws some diversity in the energy sources used for provision of heat but with a slight shift towards electrification away from gas-based heating. There was a general theme of heat supply being provided by multiple technologies (electric heat pumps, gas domestic-scale CHP, biomethane, district heating), so moving away from a single dominant technology (gas central heating).
- Demand The role of responsive demand (particularly use of low-grade heat as a storage device through heat pumps and domestic heat storage) in providing power system balancing services was a recurring feature of the scenarios. However, there was variation in assumptions regarding responsiveness of end users (caused by both technical and/or behavioural limitations).
- Technologies There was considerable uncertainty around deployment and acceptability of new (or alternative) heating technologies. Many of the solutions suggested would require a change in the way that domestic dwellings receive heat services, others require a completely different approach to installation that may not be compatible with retrofit into existing homes and many are susceptible to less than optimal running efficiencies through user behaviour.
Background
The UK Government has set challenging targets for the reduction of carbon emissions: 34% by 2020 and 80% by 2050. A better understanding of technology RD&D pathways, critical decision points and risks, will inform public and private sector decision makers on innovation policy and funding issues to help meet these targets. The Energy Research Partnership bropught together stakeholders from across the energy sector to develop such a vision.
“Developing a consensus on the technology that a decarbonised society might need in 2050 is essential. The Energy Research Partnership will be carrying out work to focus on key research, development and demonstration milestones.” HMG’s Low Carbon Transition Plan, July 2009
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Aim
The aim of the ERP “Innovation Milestones to 2050” project was to develop a shared understanding of what current analysis tells us about the technology development milestones and critical decision points for the likely key components of the energy system in 2050. Using this, the ERP set out a vision, briadly shared by Government and industry to give a better common understanding of technology pathways, timeframes and risks, and their contribution to the targets.
For ERP, this provides a context for our future work on technology assessments of RD&D challenges, gaps and opportunities. Combined with an oversight of the innovation landscape, this can be used to identify and address gaps in provision and priorities for support.
Outputs
The first phase of the project was a review and meta-analysis of a wide range of public and private energy system scenarios for 2050. The high-level / meta-analysis link above describes the process, gives the conclusions and provides high-level analysis of major UK energy system scenarios.
The report was published in March 2010.
ERP regards CCS as an important technology and has worked to help accelerate its development. Much of the work was in 2009, but ERP continues to monitor progress. Details of the presentations and discussions by the ERP and other published work can be found below.
Background
Fossil fuels are a major part of the global energy mix and will remain so for many years to come. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies are being proposed as a means of reducing carbon emissions from a range of sources, including from coal and gas fired power stations and from industry. Tackling these emissions with CCS will significantly increase the prospect of tackling global climate change and is therefore a priority.
ERP’s work in this area aims to provide an overview of the development of CCS and provide input to inform decisions about demonstration projects. This includes identifying engineering gaps and strategies, such as clustering projects, but also putting UK activity in an international context, to identify UK advantage and opportunities for collaboration.
The ERP Plenary meeting discussed CCS at two of its meetings in 2009.
Industry members from ERP have also responded to government consultations. These include responses to:
- DECC consultation Framework for the Development of Clean Coal, Sept 2009
- BERR consultation Towards Carbon Capture and Storage, Sept 2008
Conclusions and Recommendations
The UK must not delay in delivering large scale demonstration projects if it is to benefit from the commercial opportunities that will be available and also to allow fossil fuels to contribute to a secure, low carbon energy system in the UK.
Public funding mechanisms to promote the development and demonstration of the various CCS technologies need to provide confidence to encourage investment in the early projects. Costs could be significantly reduced if the projects are clustered around a common CO2 pipeline network.
A number of demonstration projects are planned across the EU. These should be coordinated to ensure that these projects demonstrate a wide range of technologies as early as possible, so as to understand their costs and potential.
Project Working Group
Doosan Power Systems, Shell, Alstom, DECC, ERP Analysis Team
Recent activities
ERP continues to monitor progress and it is often considered within the context of other projects, such as the Industrial Energy Efficiency project and International Engagement.
Further Information
Please contact the ERP Analysis Team
